Part 1 of 8: THE BUFFALO COMMONS SPECIAL REPORT
Buffalo Commons 2025: The “Crazy” 1987 Vision That Became Reality
In December 1987, two Rutgers University geographers published a paper that made them the most hated intellectuals in the Great Plains. Frank and Deborah Popper had studied rural decline across America’s heartland and reached a controversial conclusion: the Great Plains experiment was failing. The federal government should acknowledge reality, buy back failing farms, restore native grassland, and create a vast “Buffalo Commons” across 139,000 square miles of ten states.
In Kansas, they were burned in effigy. Speaking invitations were canceled. Politicians denounced them as elitist East Coast academics who understood nothing about Plains resilience.
Thirty-eight years later, the Buffalo Commons is being built—not through federal mandate, but through state wildlife policy, private land acquisition, Front Range water purchases, and environmental crisis. All converging in southeastern Colorado. The vision that was ridiculed is becoming reality.
What the Poppers Predicted
The Poppers weren’t advocating for failure—they were documenting it. Many counties had fewer residents than in 1890. Family farms were consolidating or failing. Schools were closing. The Ogallala Aquifer was depleting. Federal subsidies propped up operations that couldn’t survive without government support.
Their proposed Buffalo Commons would involve federal acquisition of failing agricultural acres, restoration of native prairie, reintroduction of bison, and a reimagined economy based on sustainable ranching and wildlife preservation.
The proposal challenged fundamental assumptions about the American West. It suggested that the agricultural conquest of the Great Plains might have been a mistake, that some landscapes can’t sustainably support intensive farming. Nobody wants to hear their home is doomed. The anger was about identity and the refusal to accept geographic limits.
The Verdict: They Were Right
Nearly four decades later, every trend the Poppers identified has accelerated.
Depopulation has continued relentlessly. Young people leave and don’t return. Schools close. Towns shrink from hundreds of residents to dozens.
Economic decline has deepened. Family farms consolidate or fail. Main Streets shutter. Banks and post offices vanish. Federal subsidies keep some marginal operations afloat but don’t reverse underlying economics. Taxpayers support agriculture that can’t support itself.
Environmental degradation worsened. Wallace County, Kansas lost 80 percent of its groundwater. The Republican River Basin in northeastern Colorado forces well shutdowns by the thousands. Nebraska continuously reduces irrigation allocations. The water crisis is worse than the Poppers predicted.
They weren’t pessimists disconnected from reality. They were accurate observers of trends people didn’t want to acknowledge.
Five Mechanisms Building the Buffalo Commons
The original proposal suggested federal buyback. That never happened. Instead, multiple mechanisms work independently but push in the same direction, creating identical results.
State Wildlife Policy: Every Great Plains state has a Wildlife Action Plan prioritizing Species of Greatest Conservation Need. In Colorado, the plan targets southeastern counties for shortgrass prairie conservation. These aren’t random selections—they’re where aquifer depletion is severest, agriculture most marginal, land most available. The plans create policy justification: “We must protect these species” becomes “we need this land for conservation.”
Private Land Acquisition: Southern Plains Land Trust has assembled 60,000+ acres in Baca and Bent Counties—formerly agricultural land. Their mission: “Buy the land, protect habitat for native flora and fauna, and let the prairie heal.” They’ve announced plans to “dramatically increase our pace of land acquisition.” Similar organizations operate regionwide. Sales are voluntary but economically coerced—when farming becomes impossible, selling to conservation buyers might be the only option avoiding bankruptcy.
Water Transfers: Aurora has spent $130 million buying Eastern Plains farmland for water rights—4,800 acres recently, with more planned. Cities practice “buy-and-dry”—purchase land and water, then dry up fields. Farmers lose irrigation. Without water, farming becomes impossible. Land becomes distressed, available for conservation acquisition.
Environmental Crisis: The Ogallala depletes faster than it recharges. Wells go dry. Interstate water compacts require shutdowns. In northeastern Colorado, the Republican River Water Conservation District is retiring 25,000 acres, forcing thousands of wells offline. This isn’t ideology—it’s hydrology. The water isn’t there. The environmental crisis the Poppers predicted forces the transition they proposed.
Political Enablers: Nicole Rosmarino spent years with the Great Plains Restoration Council, which explicitly advocates building the Buffalo Commons. Governor Polis appointed her to direct the State Land Board. Jay Tutchton manages land acquisition for Southern Plains Land Trust while serving on the Colorado Parks and Wildlife Commission and Great Outdoors Colorado’s board, which funds conservation projects including SPLT grants. These are public records revealing aligned interests in key institutions.
It’s All Happening in the Same Place
These mechanisms converge across Colorado’s eastern plains, from the New Mexico border to Nebraska, centered on Comanche National Grasslands at the Colorado-Kansas-Oklahoma-New Mexico intersection—where the Ogallala is most depleted, depopulation most severe, agriculture most marginal.
Southern Plains Land Trust operates in Baca and Bent Counties adjacent to Comanche. State Wildlife Action Plan priorities target southeastern Colorado shortgrass prairie. Aurora purchases water in Otero County directly north. Republican River shutdowns affect Kit Carson and Yuma Counties northeast. Historic transfers dried 100,000+ Crowley County acres.
Draw a circle around Comanche National Grasslands. Everything converges here. Multiple forces, independent origins, same target, same result. This is precisely where the Poppers said the Buffalo Commons should be.
The Human Cost
Environmental arguments for prairie restoration have merit. Native grasslands covered this landscape for millennia. Agricultural development disrupted ecosystems. Aquifer depletion is real crisis.
But acknowledging environmental reality doesn’t erase human consequences. When agricultural land converts to conservation, rural communities lose their economic foundation. Farmers lose livelihoods, land, identity. Towns lose residents, businesses, tax base. Schools close. Services disappear.
Crowley County residents describe Aurora’s water transfers: “Aurora has destroyed the rural lives of thousands of people.” They speak of “tombstones in the shape of water wells.”
The Buffalo Commons is built incrementally through mechanisms requiring no public votes. State agencies implement wildlife priorities administratively. Conservation organizations buy land privately. Cities purchase water rights through markets. No single action requires asking rural communities if this is the future they want. Yet cumulative impact transforms entire regions. The people who live there have no mechanism to say no.
Why Now: The Perfect Storm
Multiple forces converge simultaneously. Environmental crisis reaches critical mass—well shutdowns happen by thousands. Political will exists to enable transformation—the Polis administration placed aligned individuals in key positions. Conservation organizations have resources and momentum. Agricultural economics deteriorate—operations survive only through subsidies until crisis makes survival impossible. Water scarcity forces impossible choices—cities need water for growth, agriculture has it, something must give.
All five mechanisms work simultaneously in the same place. Farmers face pressure from every direction at once. The perfect storm the Poppers predicted is here.
The Future Already Arriving
In 1987, Buffalo Commons seemed dystopian fantasy. In 2025, it’s southeastern Colorado’s reality.
Southern Plains Land Trust has 60,000 acres and accelerates acquisition. Aurora buys more water. The Republican River District shuts more wells. Farms fail. Population declines. Transformation continues.
The trajectory is clear: more acquisition, more transfers, more shutdowns, more pressure, more failures, more land available, more Buffalo Commons.
Southeastern Colorado transforms now. Northeastern Colorado begins. What’s next? The Arkansas Valley? San Luis Valley? How much of rural Colorado becomes Buffalo Commons before anyone asks if this is what Coloradans chose?
Conclusion: It’s Not Theory—It’s Here
Frank and Deborah Popper weren’t prophets. They were geographers identifying trends. They predicted depopulation, economic decline, environmental degradation would continue. They suggested planning for change rather than pretending it wouldn’t happen.
Everything they predicted came true. The Buffalo Commons they proposed is being built through state agencies, private organizations, water districts, and environmental crisis. Mechanisms differ, but results are identical: agricultural land removed, prairie restored, bison reintroduced, communities depopulated.
The Poppers were burned in effigy for suggesting the Plains agricultural experiment was failing. Today their proposal becomes reality because the trends they identified continued exactly as predicted.
This isn’t conspiracy. It’s convergence. Multiple forces, aligned interests, same geographic target, inevitable result.
The question isn’t whether Buffalo Commons is happening—the evidence is overwhelming. The question is whether anyone will ask if this is the future Colorado actually chose, or whether we’ll discover only in retrospect that we let a vision once burned in effigy become reality while we weren’t paying attention.
The Buffalo Commons isn’t coming. It’s here.
This is the seventh in a series examining the transformation of rural Colorado. Previous articles documented state wildlife priorities, political appointments, land acquisition strategies, water transfers, aquifer depletion, and community impacts. This article connects those investigations into a comprehensive picture of systemic change.
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