Congress returns next week facing a January 30 deadline to fund six federal agencies, but the partisan warfare that triggered the 43-day government shutdown last fall appears unlikely to repeat. The shift has nothing to do with newfound cooperation and everything to do with political survival heading into November’s midterm elections.
The House and Senate passed five appropriations bills this week with overwhelming bipartisan support—votes of 397-28, 341-79, and 82-15—bringing the total to six of twelve annual spending measures now complete. The margins represent a dramatic reversal from October and November 2025, when Senate Democrats blocked Republican funding bills fourteen consecutive times on party-line votes, refusing to reopen the government without extensions of Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Those subsidies expired December 31, and Democrats still don’t have their extension. What changed wasn’t the policy—it was the political cost. Federal workers went six weeks without paychecks during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. SNAP benefits were cut off for millions. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi reported roughly half of U.S. states fell into recession, with the District of Columbia hit particularly hard by federal layoffs.
Democrats now face voters in ten months with a razor-thin House majority to defend. Senate Democrats who demanded ACA subsidies as a precondition for funding the government are quietly working on a separate bipartisan compromise for a two-year extension. Senator Lisa Murkowski told reporters Thursday she remains optimistic about reaching a deal, even as the last day of ACA open enrollment passed with families deciding whether to pay higher premiums or go without coverage.
The remaining six appropriations bills present significant challenges. Defense spending and the Labor-Health and Human Services package account for roughly two-thirds of annual discretionary federal budget. House and Senate negotiators reached agreement over the weekend on two bills covering financial services and the State Department, but punted on Homeland Security funding following the fatal January 8 shooting of an unarmed woman by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer in Minneapolis.
Congress left Thursday for a weeklong Martin Luther King Jr. Day recess. The House is scheduled out the entire last week of January when the deadline expires, leaving approximately one week of working time to complete six major spending bills. Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged Thursday the Homeland Security measure would prove most difficult. House Appropriations Committee ranking member Rosa DeLauro expressed confidence Congress would complete its work without another continuing resolution, though appropriators are reportedly preparing deals over the holiday weekend.
The bipartisan votes suggest both parties absorbed the lesson from last fall’s disaster. Republicans control narrow majorities in both chambers and can’t afford another shutdown crisis heading into midterms. Democrats triggered the last shutdown over healthcare subsidies they still haven’t secured, then watched federal workers struggle and food assistance programs shut down for six weeks.
Whether Congress passes the remaining bills when lawmakers return or opts for a short-term continuing resolution, another extended shutdown appears unlikely. The political incentives have shifted decisively toward compromise—not from principle but from electoral calculation. Both parties need to demonstrate they can govern before November’s elections, even if cooperation only extends to keeping the lights on through the campaign season.
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