The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was signed June 17 in Switzerland. By June 28, both sides were exchanging fire in the Strait of Hormuz for the second consecutive night. The technical negotiations that were supposed to begin days after the signing have not started.
The sequence moved fast. Iran struck the Singapore-flagged cargo ship M/V Ever Lovely in the Strait. U.S. Central Command responded with strikes on Iranian targets. Iran was given an opportunity to honor the ceasefire but instead launched a one-way attack drone that hit the M/T Kiku at 4:30 a.m. on June 28. CENTCOM conducted a second night of strikes in direct response. Kuwait and Bahrain reported incoming Iranian missiles and drones the same morning. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that ceasefire violations will “bring all ongoing diplomatic processes to a complete halt.”
The ceasefire is eleven days old.
The Switzerland technical talks were postponed June 18 — one day after the MOU was signed. No new date has been announced. The 60-day clock negotiated in the framework is running. The issues deferred to that window — the status of Iran’s nuclear program, its 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief, and frozen asset releases — remain unresolved.
HCA reported June 14, before the MOU was signed, that the two sides were characterizing the same document differently. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated the MOU “focuses on ending the war” and that nuclear issues would not be discussed in the first phase. The Trump administration described Iran’s nuclear commitments as a central element of the agreement. That contradiction was not resolved before signing and has not been resolved since.
The deal as signed delivers none of Trump’s three stated objectives from the opening of the war. The administration launched strikes February 28 demanding regime change, no nuclear program, and no money to Tehran. Iran’s government survives under Supreme Leader Khamenei’s son. Iran’s nuclear enrichment program is frozen, not dismantled, pending the stalled technical talks. Sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets — figures ranging from $24 billion to $300 billion depending on the draft — remain on the table for Phase 2.
The Strait of Hormuz, the deal’s most cited achievement, was open before the war began. Iran closed it in response to the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes. Restoring a pre-war baseline is not a strategic gain.
Lebanon followed the same pattern. A U.S.-brokered security agreement between Lebanon and Israel was signed. Hezbollah’s leader declared it null and void the day after, calling it a surrender of Lebanese sovereignty. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun asked Trump on June 27 to press Israel to withdraw from occupied areas in southern Lebanon. Israel’s defense minister said the country would keep troops there indefinitely.
The political cost is accumulating. Republican hawks including Ted Cruz and Mike Pompeo broke publicly with the White House over the deal’s terms before it was even signed. Trump said at a Cabinet meeting that Iran believed it could outwait him on the midterms. Iran’s negotiating record through four months of broken deadlines supports that read.
The 60-day negotiating window closes in mid-August. The hardest issues — enrichment levels, uranium stockpile disposition, missile programs, proxy funding, and sanctions architecture — are all unresolved.
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