By Vince Phillips
Chaffee County residents are still catching their breath from the 2026 property tax bill, many up 20–30, and already the question looms: Will the pain keep getting worse? With the Gallagher Amendment gone since 2020, there’s no automatic downward adjustment to residential rates when home values surge. Instead, taxes are tied to actual value growth, statewide assessment rates set by the legislature, local mill levies, and TABOR’s revenue caps. The short answer: 2027 could bring some relief for many, but another boom could mean 30%+ jumps again. Here’s a realistic look at what’s ahead, based on current trends, assessor data, and state forecasts.
Recent Trends Driving the Outlook
Chaffee’s property values have been volatile post-pandemic. The 2025 reappraisal (for 2025–2026 taxes) used sales from mid-2022 to mid-2024, capturing strong demand for mountain homes. Residential median values climbed steadily, with Q4 2025 reports showing average sales around $799,000 (up 12.6% year-over-year in some data). Statewide, actual value growth was modest in 2025–2026 (under 5% in many cycles), triggering no further rate reductions beyond legislative tweaks. Chaffee’s assessed valuation rose 4.8% for 2025 (from $869.7 million to $911.9 million), but TABOR limited the property tax revenue increase to just 5.5% ($315,691 more).
Relief for Some, Risk for Others
The next reappraisal cycle, for tax year 202, will use sales from mid-2024 to mid-2026 to set actual values. Important note: There is typically an 18- to 24-month lag between the sales data used in a reappraisal and when the resulting tax bill arrives in your mailbox. That means homeowners can end up paying taxes based on boom-period prices even during a market slowdown or bust. Current market signals point to slower growth: Statewide forecasts from Fannie Mae and the National Association of Realtors project U.S. home price appreciation of roughly 2–3.6% for 2026–2027, assuming mortgage rates stabilize around 6–6.5%.
In Chaffee County, early 2026 data shows median sale prices in the $616,500–$780,000 range depending on the source and month, with some softening month-to-month, rising inventory, and longer days on market, indicators of a cooling but still resilient local market.
If statewide actual value growth remains under 5%, residential assessment rates for 2027 are expected to hold at 7.05% for schools and 6.8% for local governments (before the new deduction). Starting in 2026 (and carrying into 2027), homeowners get a new valuation subtraction for non-school taxes: up to 10% of actual value or $70,000 (inflation-adjusted in future cycles), whichever is less. This effectively lowers the local government assessment rate for many properties to around 6.4% or better.
Result?
Many Chaffee homeowners could see their 2027 bills stabilize or drop slightly—perhaps $50–$100 less than 2026 for a median-valued home—thanks to the full effect of the $70,000 deduction on the local portion and modest value growth. Statewide, the recent relief packages (including assessment rate reductions) have already delivered roughly $1 billion in cumulative savings since 2021, with more phased in as nonresidential rates reach 25%.
The Warning: Booms Can Still Hit Hard
Without Gallagher’s automatic residential rate adjustments to maintain the old 45/55 residential-to-nonresidential share, rapid value growth passes more directly to taxpayers. A rebound in tourism, dropping interest rates, or renewed buyer demand could push Chaffee values up sharply again (30%+ cumulative over a cycle happened post-COVID). In high-growth scenarios, bills could jump another 20–30% or more in a single reappraisal. TABOR and the new statutory caps (e.g., 5.25% annual growth or 10.5% per reassessment cycle for many local governments) limit how much revenue entities can collect, often forcing mill levy reductions. But surging assessed values still drive higher individual tax bills unless assessment rates or other offsets adjust downward.
Statewide Context and the Rural-Urban Divide
Colorado’s post-Gallagher system hits rural tourism-dependent counties like Chaffee harder than urban areas with large commercial tax bases. Urban counties can better absorb residential spikes; mountain communities feel them acutely. State forecasts suggest limited or no major TABOR refunds in 2027 (possibly $0), as surpluses may stay below the cap amid shifting federal policies. That could mean less state backfill for local budgets and added pressure on property taxes or fees.
What Can We Do? Push for Gallagher-Style Protections
The most durable long-term solution is a voter-approved constitutional amendment restoring a Gallagher-like mechanism. A 2024 proposal (HCR 24B-1002) to reinstate a target residential/nonresidential share and force automatic rate adjustments was postponed, but similar initiatives could return. Key elements worth supporting: A fixed statewide or segmented (urban/rural) ratio that triggers biennial residential rate adjustments.Safeguards to prevent disproportionate burdens on rural homeowners.Continued TABOR-style voter approval for major changes.
Other options include tighter local spending caps, dedicated relief from sales tax revenue, or targeted grant programs. Contact your legislators, support rural equity advocacy groups, and make your voice heard—especially ahead of future election cycles.
Bottom Line: 2027 may bring a breather for many Chaffee homeowners if the market continues to cool. But Gallagher’s repeal has left us more exposed to boom-and-bust swings. It’s time to demand smarter protections that prioritize homeowners over unchecked government revenue growth.
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