Proxy Wars, Broken Alliances, and the High Cost of Gulf Ambitions
The fracture between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates erupted into open confrontation on December 30, 2025, when Saudi-led coalition forces struck the port of Mukalla, destroying vehicles and equipment Riyadh claimed were shipped from the UAE to arm separatist forces. This airstrike marked the sharpest escalation yet in a simmering dispute over Yemen’s future, exposing how once-aligned Gulf powers have prioritized competing visions at the expense of stability. The UAE’s rapid announcement of a full withdrawal of its remaining counterterrorism personnel followed, a move framed as voluntary but clearly forced by Saudi pressure and the internationally recognized Yemeni government’s ultimatum to expel Emirati forces within 24 hours. At the heart of this crisis lies the Southern Transitional Council’s aggressive offensive, which seized control of oil-rich Hadramawt and border province al-Mahra—territories Riyadh views as vital to its national security.
The timeline reveals a calculated push by the UAE-backed STC that caught Saudi-backed forces off guard. Beginning in early December, STC units advanced swiftly through Hadramawt, capturing key military installations, government buildings, and PetroMasila, Yemen’s largest oil producer. By mid-month, they extended into al-Mahra, bordering Oman, with minimal resistance from tribal alliances previously aligned with Riyadh. STC leader Aidarus al-Zoubaidi justified the moves as necessary to secure southern Yemen from Houthi smuggling and terrorism, but the rapid gains—controlling 90-95% of former South Yemen’s populated areas and 80% of its oil reserves—directly challenged Saudi red lines. Riyadh responded with warnings, then airstrikes on STC positions, culminating in the Mukalla operation targeting alleged UAE arms shipments from Fujairah port. Coalition spokesman Turki al-Malki detailed the strike as a “limited” response to an imminent threat, while Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council head Rashad al-Alimi accused the UAE of directing a rebellion against state authority. The UAE denied arming aggressors, insisting vehicles were for its own forces, yet pulled out amid the fallout—highlighting Abu Dhabi’s reluctance to confront Riyadh head-on but refusal to fully restrain its proxies.
International reactions underscore the rift’s regional dangers, yet reveal muted accountability. The United States, through Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s call with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, discussed tensions but issued no forceful demand for reconciliation—despite the crisis undermining shared anti-Houthi goals. Israel’s silence persists even as reports surface of STC outreach for normalization and cooperation against common threats like the Houthis, with al-Zoubaidi signaling readiness to join Abraham Accords in exchange for support of southern independence. Iran seized the moment rhetorically, with Foreign Minister Esmail Baghaei framing STC advances as Zionist-driven fragmentation, while quietly benefiting from coalition disarray that distracts from northern frontlines.
Neighbors stepped in cautiously: Oman’s Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr al-Busaidi met Prince Faisal in Riyadh on December 31 to urge de-escalation and a political settlement preserving Yemen’s sovereignty. The European Union echoed calls for restraint, warning that instability in Hadramawt and al-Mahra risks broader Gulf turmoil and reiterating support for Yemen’s unity. Yet these pleas lack teeth, ignoring how Saudi strikes and UAE proxy empowerment have already escalated risks.
The economic stakes amplify the fallout. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, core OPEC+ players, now face strained coordination ahead of production decisions, with analysts warning disagreements could lead to oversupply and softer prices in 2026. Yemen’s disrupted oil exports from newly STC-controlled fields add pressure, threatening global energy stability amid an already glutted market.
This crisis lays bare direct failures: Saudi Defense Ministry oversight lapsed in preventing arms flows and separatist overreach along its borders; UAE officials, including those coordinating with the STC, evaded coalition protocols to pursue autonomy agendas; al-Zoubaidi and al-Alimi bear responsibility for prioritizing factional gains over unified anti-Houthi efforts. The result strengthens Iran-backed Houthis passively, fragments Yemen further, and risks reigniting full-scale southern war. Truth demands naming these accountable parties—Gulf ambitions have trumped Yemeni sovereignty, with internationals offering vague mediation while the humanitarian crisis worsens. Without enforced withdrawal and genuine talks, 2026 promises more chaos, not resolution.
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