Gold spot traded at $4,081 per ounce Sunday, extending a slide that has now erased $1,516 from the metal’s all-time high of $5,595 set January 28 and posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
The drop since HCA’s June 14 report has been modest in dollar terms — gold closed that week at $4,216 — but the direction has not changed. The 30-day range ran from $3,959 to $4,595, averaging $4,269. Gold has not recovered above its 200-day moving average since the January peak.
The Federal Open Market Committee met June 16 and 17 and held the target federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first press conference to reaffirm the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control, putting to rest speculation that he would yield to pressure to cut rates. The Fed raised its 2026 PCE inflation projections at the same meeting.
Markets moved decisively after the statement. The probability of a December rate hike now stands at 80 percent. The probability of a September increase sits at 63 percent. Neither figure existed on the table two weeks ago. Higher rates support the dollar and weigh on gold, which pays no yield.
The May Personal Consumption Expenditures index, released Thursday, came in at 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with consensus. That reading trimmed December hike odds only modestly and gave physical buyers brief cover to re-enter before selling resumed. U.S. producer prices rose 6.5 percent year-over-year in May.
Oil prices returned to pre-conflict levels as U.S.-Iran peace negotiations advanced. That removed the inflation premium that had supported gold during the height of the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Easing energy costs cut directly into the fear-driven demand that had anchored gold above $4,500 in May.
Structural demand remains intact beneath the paper-market selloff. The World Gold Council’s annual central bank survey found that 90 percent of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months. Global bar-and-coin demand reached 474 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, the second-highest quarterly figure on record and up 42 percent year-over-year.
Gold sits 27 percent below its January high. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for late July.
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